Using OSINT to Investigate Arson Incidents and Gang Violence in the Haiti Crisis
This blog post was based on research and analysis conducted as part of the final assignment for the bespoke Knowmad OSINT training for the International Masters in Security, Intelligence, and Strategic Studies (IMSISS) offered by the University of Glasgow, Dublin City University, Charles University, and Trento University.
Over the past two years, Haiti has experienced a surge in political violence and gang activity, concentrated in the capital city. On January 18, 2024, a spike in fires was detected in the Port-au-Prince’s neighborhood of Solino.
ACLED data by Samuele Minelli Zuffa
Responsibility for the attacks remains unclaimed. However, this Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) analysis assesses that the incidents were most likely orchestrated by a violent gang, with the 103Zonbi group being the most likely culprit.
The deliberate targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructures contradicts the gangs’ narrative of acting as security providers for the Haitian population, eroding their credibility.
Verifying the Arson Fires
Map of Solino, Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
Spike of fires experienced on 18.01.2024 in Solino. Data Source: Sentinel Hub EO Browser
Fires in Rue Delorme
In the aftermath of January 18th, social media posts suggested that multiple fires broke out in Solino that day. Videos and images published on X (formerly Twitter) showed burnt civilian infrastructures, including private homes and a kindergarten. The first step to confirm the occurrence of the fires in the Solino area was achieved using medium-resolution satellite imagery acquired through Sentinel Hub’s EO browser. Rue Delorme, identified as Ruelle Bergeaud on the EO Browser, emerged among the most affected sites on January 18th.
Fires in Solino, identified in Rue Delorme on 18.01.2024 using Sentinel Hub
Zoom-in on the affected streets. Fires in Solino, identified in Rue Delorme on 18.01.2024 using Sentinel Hub
The second step entailed the geolocation of the fires through evidence provided by social media posts. A video published by France24 and The Observers on X (previously Twitter) allowed us to cross-reference the location of the fire in Rue Delorme. Environmental reconnaissance and geospatial analysis using Google Earth Pro allowed for the identification of landmarks from the video footage, specifically a football field and a light blue roof. This allowed us to geolocate the fire near Rue Delorme.
X post published by @France24 and @Observers on 25.01.2024
Geolocation of the fire in Rue Delorme using Google Earth Pro
Fire in Avenue J. Poupelard
Satellite imagery provided by Sentinel Hub indicated a second location heavily affected by a fire, on Avenue J. Poupelard.
Fires in Solino, identified in Avenue J. Poupelard on 18.01.2024 using Sentinel Hub
Zoom-in on the affected streets. Fires in Solino, identified in Avenue J. Poupelard on 18.01.2024 using Sentinel Hub
References to this incident were reported on X, notably by Michèle B. Duvalier, former Haitian First Lady (1980-1986). Once again, the geolocation of the fire was carried out by comparing video footage with Google Earth Pro data.
Screenshots of the X post published by @mbduvalier on 18.01.2024
Key landmarks identified in the X post, such as a car parking area, an oddly shaped orange building, and an advertising poster, were verified using Google Earth Pro, confirming the reported location.
Geolocation of landmarks identified @mbduvalier’s X post on Google Earth Pro
Geolocation of the fire in Avenue J. Poupelard using Google Earth Pro
Evaluating Responsibility for the Incidents
Following the confirmed geolocation of the arsons, we focused on gathering evidence for assessing responsibility for the incidents.
The targets of the arson fires were mainly civilians. The arson fires targeted civilians and civilian infrastructures. It is particularly notable in the video published by The Observers and France 24, witnessing the damage caused by the fires in the Solino neighborhood.
The footage shows burnt households, cars and a kindergarten. It is not an unprecedented incident as other cases have been reported in February (with a hospital being attacked) and March 2024 (the airport, pharmacies, and clinics).
Moreover, the analysis carried out using Google Earth Pro confirmed that the affected area consists solely of civilian residences, with no visible military installations or police stations present. This finding further suggests the arson fires specifically targeted civilian infrastructure.
Screenshots of the X post published by @Observers on 25.01.2024
Haitian gangs mainly target civilians and civilian infrastructures, usually indiscriminately. ACLED data report that 45% of the attacks perpetrated by gangs since 2020 have involved the deliberate targeting of civilians. In contrast, 7.1% of state authorities’ interventions have entailed civilian targeting. Notably, state-directed violence against civilians typically occurs in the context of suppressing demonstrations or similar events, rather than indiscriminate targeting of civilian infrastructure.
As reported by RNDDH, between January and February 2024, the nine anti-government protests organized throughout the country were severely repressed by law enforcement forces with four protesters killed, and 15 injured including eight journalists.
This distinction underscores a pattern commonly employed by gangs, consistent with the tactics detected in the Solino fires.
Source: elaboration of ACLED’s data by Elena Potitò
Haitian state authorities unlikely to use arsons in fighting gangs. Haitian law enforcement has been criticized for the excessive use of force in combating gangs. However, the Haitian Police are currently under scrutiny by the United Nations and by the deployed Multinational Security Support Mission, making it unlikely that state authorities would have deliberately targeted civilians or initiated the fires in Solino.
Arson, by contrast, is a well-documented tactic among Haitian gangs. Additionally, the lack of evidence suggesting that fires have been used as a counter-terrorism or crowd control measure further supports the assessment that local police were not involved in these incidents.
Thus, even if police brutality is high in Haiti, resorting to arson is not a commonly reported counter-terrorism tactic, making this hypothesis unlikely, or at least more unlikely compared to violent gangs being the culprits
103Zonbi is the main active gang in the Solino area, likely responsible for the arson fires. Several sources indicate that the gang 103Zonbi is increasing its activity in the Bel Air area, adjacent to Solino. The gang’s prosperous activity is corroborated by social media posts from its members, showing expensive cars and weapons.
In recent months, the gang has attempted to expand its control into Solino. A journalist embedded with the gang, working for France24, interviewed some of its members, who confirmed these efforts. They openly declared their intent to fight for control of Solino, stating, “in the Solino war, we are ready to die.” This aligns with the broader pattern of territorial expansion observed in the gang’s recent operations.
While smaller gangs may be active in the area, 103Zonbi is dominant group and is the likeliest gang to bear responsibility for major incidents, including the arson fires.
Screenshots of TikTok posts published by @103zoni
Interviews with 103Zonbi members in Solino, source: France24
Civilians in Haiti usually set fires in an attempt to draw attention from authorities. While civilians have previously set fire to tires as a means of drawing attention from local authorities, this scenario is highly unlikely, as the scale of the affected areas is too extensive to underpin this hypothesis. Additionally, the lack of corroborating evidence further downplays this option.
by Elena Potitò and Iris Durif
